Please find the FSN Discussion Group paper resulting from the January 29th meeting on the US Presidential Election here: FSN Post-US Election Sessions – Final
Thank you all for great discussion, here are the slides:Présentation 29.01.21v.ff
FSN ZOOM DISCUSSION of the US Election Results – implications
29 January 2021, 1:00 – 3:30 pm
Hosted by Peter MacKinnon, moderated by Guy Stanley. Bios attached
This FSN discussion is a follow-up to the FSN session of November 26th regarding the then state of the US Presidential Election and gazing into the near-term future post Inauguration. Thus, the time for the second discussion has arrived. Here is the Moderator’s discussion Paper from the November session (US Election FSN Moderator’s report 26.11.20 session). It will be used to set the stage for the ensuing discussion against the themes of the paper and the latest events as they happen up until the meeting date
Two questions that were used to guide the initial discussion can be found below. They are still relevant in slightly modified form to guide the next conversation:
- What and when might we see a New Normal, given post US election and post COVID-19?
- What are the key drivers, trends, wild cards & indicators that will shape and characterize the “New Normal and when?
For this session, the aim is to collect and collate ideas on points in the discussion paper and on questions (a) and (b) above. The overall objective being to glean a view or views on where the next US Administration is heading, especially with respect to the Trump Administration.
Guy Stanley has been active with the Foresight Synergy Network for many years. Born in Toronto, he holds an MA and Ph.D. in international history (LSE 1974) and a BA (History & Pol. Sci.) from the University of Victoria (1967). His career combined consulting with Fortune 500 multinational firms and international organizations with university teaching and research in Geneva, New York, Montréal and Ottawa. Guy was Director of the IMBA program at the University of Ottawa (2000-3) and Director of Technology & Innovation at the Conference Board of Canada. (2004-7) He taught international commerce at McGill and HEC, Montréal 1991-2007 and worked with l’Ecole polytechnique de Montréal (2007-8). His latest book, Rebuilding Liberalism, Dundurn Press, was published in July 2019. He lives in Beaconsfield, QC.
The Zoom link will be sent out the night before the meeting. Should you wish to join this seminar and have not done so through the Foresight Network, please contact the host, Peter MacKinnon at “mackinnon.peter” <email@example.com> before 17:00 on January 28th.
Title: An Overview of Smart Cities Five to Ten Years Out in a Post Pandemic World
The current pandemic is accelerating the need for cities to transform from independent transactional environments of siloed city operations into open data and digitally interconnected cityscapes.
Now, as always, the future is uncertain. Climate change, pandemics, economic crisis, social exclusion, racism, oppression of women, inter-generational conflict, and more, shatter the conventional images of the future that humans use to feel secure, to be confident enough to invest in tomorrow.
This is not a small problem. Without images of the future that inspire hope and foster collaboration there is a high risk of despair and war. The malaise of poverty-of-the-imagination must be overcome.“
FSN ZOOM DISCUSSION of the US Election Results – implications
26 November, 1:30 – 3:30 pm
Hosted by Peter MacKinnon, moderated by Guy Stanley. Bios attached
Two questions to guide the conversation: (1) What and when might we see a New Normal, given post US election and post COVID-19? (2) What are the key drivers, trends, wild cards & indicators that will shape and characterize the “New Normal and for how long?
Basic theme: The new US admin wants to “build back better”: Is this realistic or feasible?
If “Yes” – then what scenarios apply? if No, then what scenarios apply? In both cases, what are the takeaways for the US, the world- and for Canada? And, of course, what could go wildly wrong or right?
Clearly, two hours is not enough to do more than air a lot of possibilities and policy issues. A second session after Jan 20 will re-examine the situation and perhaps aim at some firm(er) conclusions. For this session, the aim is to collect and collate ideas on points 1 and 2 above. A rapporteur’s summary will be circulated a week or so after this first session which might be used as a starting point for a follow-up session late January, 2021.
Bio-Guy Stanley, Ph.D.
Guy Stanley has been active with the Foresight Synergy Network for many years. Born in Toronto, he holds an MA and Ph.D. in international history (LSE 1974) and a BA (History & Pol. Sci.) from the University of Victoria (1967). His career combined consulting with Fortune 500 multinational firms and international organizations with university teaching and research in Geneva, New York, Montréal and Ottawa. Guy was Director of the IMBA program at the University of Ottawa (2000-3) and Director of Technology & Innovation at the Conference Board of Canada. (2004-7) He taught international commerce at McGill and HEC, Montréal 1991-2007 and worked with l’Ecole polytechnique de Montréal (2007-8). His latest book, Rebuilding Liberalism, Dundurn Press, was published last July. He lives in Beaconsfield, QC.
Please email firstname.lastname@example.org for zoom link.
A VICIOUS CIRCUS IN A VICIOUS CIRCLE
The New York Times Magazine has a political news column titled The National Circus. The articles, often by Frank Rich, are excellent, analytical and in-depth, going beyond a spectacle which no longer delights us but fascinates as much as it exhausts and maddens us.
For this talk, and forthcoming essay, Nicole Morgan has borrowed and built upon this image and metaphor of the circus, eliminating the overly restrictive qualifier of National. To this she adds the adjective vicious, chosen carefully from all her research on political hatred. The internet’s instant tweets and circular echo chambers are perfect for compounding the toxicity described by Neil Postman in 1985 in Amusing Ourselves to Death, a book to be re-read. The product of today’s vicious and circular political hatred is death in many forms: death in the mind, death in the streets, death from the sky, and the death of much of our planet. Ms. Morgan will try to demonstrate that this is the goal of this vicious circus, a show with many plotters writing a unified script.
UNESCO video where it explains the analysis our modern world starting from Renaissance: http://www.unesco.org/archives/multimedia/document-2325
Date and time: Oct. 23, 2020, 2 pm to 3:30 pm
Location: Zoom, link to be send out shortly before the event.
September 2001. I had just started at the Royal Military College. The World Future Society I belonged to asked me to write about terrorism, a subject they had not been previously studied. In a hurry, I produced the several scenarios trying to go beyond what I call the pull of small events and placed them into the mega changes which were agitating the world. From that perspective a burst of anxious violence was to be expected and not only from Al Qaeda. Although, later I co authored a book on Al Qaida (Mathieu Guidère Le Manuel de recrutement d’Al Qaïda, Paris, Le Seuil, 2007) , I was also lucky enough to work in St. Cyr with experts who looked at the global picture. All terrorism is alike but some is far more dangerous. In 2007 I started studying the emerging violence in the US, which led to my book Haine froide (Paris, Le Seuil, 2012). I qualify the hatred by froide (cold) because it is normalized by cold numbers. The emergence of the white supremacism is global and will persist for the while, whether Donald Trump is reelected or not.
Link to the essay: 2001 WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the FSN seminars are postponed until further notice. Any changes will be posted here and sent via email to those on FSN distribution list.
Applied Foresight Scenario Principles and Practices
February 28, 2020 – DMS 4120
13:30 – 15:30
Update 2: Here are the slides – S2S February 28, 2020 Presentation to FSN
Update: Room changed to DMS 4120.
Arden Brummell and Greg MacGillivray, of Scenarios to Strategy Inc. (S2S), are long-time professional Foresight practitioners who will deliver, via video streaming from Calgary, a presentation on Applied Foresight Scenario Principles and Practices with facilitation in Ottawa by Peter MacKinnon.
The session objectives are: (1) to share the highlights of S2S’ 15 years of scenario planning emphasizing the breadth, depth and strategic nature of the work we have done; (2) to engage the audience and receive feedback from them as experts; and (3) to collaboratively explore opportunities where scenario planning could be deployed to improve complex adaptive systems.
Based on these objectives, S2S has designed and will facilitate along with Peter, a unique mix of formal presentations and highly engaging conversations all focused on scenario planning – a leading strategic foresight tool.
(1) Introduction to S2S & Scenarios (10 minutes) The why, how and what of scenarios and moving from scenarios into strategy.
(2) Survey of S2S Scenario Work (20 minutes, 10 minutes for discussion) Examples showing the range (e.g., energy, environment, health, commercial, aging), depth (issues addressed) and relevance (emphasis on strategic action and outcomes).
(3) Key Learnings from S2S’ Scenario Planning Projects (15 minutes, 10 minutes for discussion) General perspectives on the change driven by our work including key learnings and issues addressed.
(4) S2S-QUEST Case Study (10 minutes) A quick review of the QUEST scenario planning materials from 2008 and how they were used at that time.
The QUEST materials from 2008 are available at www.scenarios2strategy.com:
(1) Click on Client Login button at the upper right of the S2S Home page.
(2) Then click on QUEST Title and click I Agree at the bottom of the Disclaimer Page.
(3) Please review the QUEST II Scenarios Report – Final at you convenience.
(5) Audience Engagement on the S2S-QUEST Case Study (30 minutes) We will explore the following questions with the audience:
What major developments have occurred that support one or more scenarios?
Has one scenario clearly emerged since 2008?
What developments have occurred that were not anticipated in 2008?
If you were a decision-maker in 2008 and had the QUEST scenarios in hand, what policy action (e.g., legislation, regulation, programs, funding, etc.) would you have proposed? How would they have worked out?
(6) Participant Feedback & Future Applications (10 minutes)
Open discussion of ideas of where scenario planning could be applied in the future to improve complex adaptive systems.
Impact of Advanced IT on the Governance of the State:
Summary Discussions of Workshop Findings
By Stephen Fanjoy & Peter MacKinnon
February 21, 2020 – DMS 7170
13:30 – 17:30
Democratic and autocratic states are increasingly using advanced data and information technologies to monitor people in unprecedented ways. Democracy is under threat. Fake news and alternative facts are increasingly penetrating the public commons. Cyberspace is becoming an environment for nefarious actions by both state and non-state actors seeking many conflicting objectives ranging from eavesdropping and espionage to influencing public processes such as elections.
This workshop series is a consequence of two past Foresight seminars, namely Technology & Democracy on November 23, 2018 and The History & Foreseeable Future of Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities & Threats on December 14, 2018. Both seminars raised issues that led to staging this Workshop series.
The presenters will cover the workshop discussions to date and their synthesis of our collective findings using visual tools along with comments on gaps and other issues arising.
The presentation materials for both seminars and the previous two workshops are available on the FSN website on the dates noted (https://fsncanada.wordpress.com/).
Stephen Fanjoy is a management consultant, director, and interim executive to start-up entrepreneurs, specializing in business software, including significant experience in novel cybersecurity, medical device and data science solutions.
Steve has over two decades of experience in enterprise software, including executive and senior management roles in strategy, product management, marketing, analyst relations, business development, and mergers and acquisitions. He is an honours graduate of the Dalhousie University School of Business and a Certified Management Consultant (CMC). www.linkedin.com/in/stephenfanjoy/
Peter MacKinnon has a background as a scientist, business manager, entrepreneur, domestic and international bureaucrat, executive, diplomat, management advisor, and academic; including affiliation with both Telfer and the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Ottawa.
He is a pioneer in the commercialization of AI and today is actively involved in ethical and policy issues related to AI. He has an extensive background on the forefront of scientific and technological breakthroughs around disruptive technologies and their impacts on society. www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mackinnon-ba88682a/.