Applied Foresight Scenario Principles and Practices
February 28, 2020 – DMS 4120
13:30 – 15:30
Update 2: Here are the slides – S2S February 28, 2020 Presentation to FSN
Update: Room changed to DMS 4120.
Arden Brummell and Greg MacGillivray, of Scenarios to Strategy Inc. (S2S), are long-time professional Foresight practitioners who will deliver, via video streaming from Calgary, a presentation on Applied Foresight Scenario Principles and Practices with facilitation in Ottawa by Peter MacKinnon.
The session objectives are: (1) to share the highlights of S2S’ 15 years of scenario planning emphasizing the breadth, depth and strategic nature of the work we have done; (2) to engage the audience and receive feedback from them as experts; and (3) to collaboratively explore opportunities where scenario planning could be deployed to improve complex adaptive systems.
Based on these objectives, S2S has designed and will facilitate along with Peter, a unique mix of formal presentations and highly engaging conversations all focused on scenario planning – a leading strategic foresight tool.
(1) Introduction to S2S & Scenarios (10 minutes) The why, how and what of scenarios and moving from scenarios into strategy.
(2) Survey of S2S Scenario Work (20 minutes, 10 minutes for discussion) Examples showing the range (e.g., energy, environment, health, commercial, aging), depth (issues addressed) and relevance (emphasis on strategic action and outcomes).
(3) Key Learnings from S2S’ Scenario Planning Projects (15 minutes, 10 minutes for discussion) General perspectives on the change driven by our work including key learnings and issues addressed.
(4) S2S-QUEST Case Study (10 minutes) A quick review of the QUEST scenario planning materials from 2008 and how they were used at that time.
The QUEST materials from 2008 are available at www.scenarios2strategy.com:
(1) Click on Client Login button at the upper right of the S2S Home page.
(2) Then click on QUEST Title and click I Agree at the bottom of the Disclaimer Page.
(3) Please review the QUEST II Scenarios Report – Final at you convenience.
(5) Audience Engagement on the S2S-QUEST Case Study (30 minutes) We will explore the following questions with the audience:
What major developments have occurred that support one or more scenarios?
Has one scenario clearly emerged since 2008?
What developments have occurred that were not anticipated in 2008?
If you were a decision-maker in 2008 and had the QUEST scenarios in hand, what policy action (e.g., legislation, regulation, programs, funding, etc.) would you have proposed? How would they have worked out?
(6) Participant Feedback & Future Applications (10 minutes)
Open discussion of ideas of where scenario planning could be applied in the future to improve complex adaptive systems.