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FSN Seminar – October 4

FSN Seminar – OCT 4 2019 [1330-1600] – DMS [link to map] Room 7170

Foresight Methods: Probing Policy Uncertainties Through Scenarios

ABSTRACT: Drawing on his extensive experience with scenarios,  Mr. Smith will present a brief overview of 12+ foresight methods and then examine several ways of constructing scenarios  –  e. g.

  1. double axial, (also known as archetypal or classic)
  2. triple axial or pyramidal:,
  3. cube design or quartro axial;
  4. Modified cube or multimodal (> 4 axes ) or Protean multi-factor analytical
  5. Thematic generic; timeless or urgent; with or without add-on factors
  6. Normative or ranked by participants for preference, expectation; probability; practicality or plausibility;.
  7. Three Horizons; #1 the present; #3 the prospective future and #2 the diverse ways going forward in time ( e.g. actions, investments, inventions, innovations, events etc.) that  can help realize the vision described by the 3rd
  8. Wildcards e. g. How many to include; what guidance is required; and what about black swans, elephants and cobras?

Finally, the discussion should pursue the question of how should uncertainty in policy outcomes be elicited, structured; evaluated and captured, by foresight facilitators, practitioners and sponsors.

BIO: JS Bio Oct 2019

Slides: JS Oct 4-2019 Focus on Scenarios Introduction to Foresight

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