FSN Seminar – OCT 4 2019 [1330-1600] – DMS [link to map] Room 7170
|Foresight Methods: Probing Policy Uncertainties Through Scenarios|
ABSTRACT: Drawing on his extensive experience with scenarios, Mr. Smith will present a brief overview of 12+ foresight methods and then examine several ways of constructing scenarios – e. g.
- double axial, (also known as archetypal or classic)
- triple axial or pyramidal:,
- cube design or quartro axial;
- Modified cube or multimodal (> 4 axes ) or Protean multi-factor analytical
- Thematic generic; timeless or urgent; with or without add-on factors
- Normative or ranked by participants for preference, expectation; probability; practicality or plausibility;.
- Three Horizons; #1 the present; #3 the prospective future and #2 the diverse ways going forward in time ( e.g. actions, investments, inventions, innovations, events etc.) that can help realize the vision described by the 3rd
- Wildcards e. g. How many to include; what guidance is required; and what about black swans, elephants and cobras?
Finally, the discussion should pursue the question of how should uncertainty in policy outcomes be elicited, structured; evaluated and captured, by foresight facilitators, practitioners and sponsors.
BIO: JS Bio Oct 2019
Slides: JS Oct 4-2019 Focus on Scenarios Introduction to Foresight