Author: foresightsynergynetwork

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Title: Cybersecurity & Communications Protocols for Connected & Autonomous Vehicles

Summary

Cybersecurity & Communications Protocols for Connected & Autonomous Vehicles is an advancing group of technologies.   The present state of the technology development and future developments will be explored with particular reference to a Connected & Autonomous Vehicles engineering project being led by uOttawa.

Biography:

Peter has a background as a scientist, business manager, entrepreneur, domestic and international bureaucrat, executive, diplomat, management advisor, and academic. Today he is affiliated with both the Telfer School of Management and the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Ottawa.

He is a pioneer in the commercialization of AI and is actively involved in ethical and policy issues related to AI, especially as a member of various committees such as the IEEE-USA Artificial Intelligence Policy Committee, the IEEE Standards Association AI & Ethics Committee, Fortune Magazine’s Advisory Board and the Harvard Business Review’s Advisory Council.  

Peter has an extensive background at the forefront of scientific and technological breakthroughs around disruptive technologies and their impacts on society.  He also writes frequently about AI in editorials for policy organizations.

See www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mackinnon-ba88682a/ for more background.

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Title: Further Musings of Derek Ireland on AI Complexities and Chaos

Purpose: Update earlier musings in FSN presentation on December 12 2024 which were then placed in a working paper now available on SSRN at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5176031 — according to this network, this paper has received a reasonable number of downloads and Abstract views (whatever that means) 

The Sept. 25 presentation and the next version of the working paper to be presented at the Canadian Law and Economics (CLEA) Conference in early October attempt to go far beyond the earlier versions; and therefore the presenter will try to minimize repetition of the Dec. 2024 slides and discussion unless needed for context or background. 

The December 2024 presentation and subsequent working paper applied a behavioral and complexity science lens to artificial intelligence.  The chaos, either caused by or surrounding AI since then, such as the new American president, and the “surprising” AI breakthroughs of China, illustrate  why chaos theory and the butterfly effect should also be applied.  Presentation as well will encompass some behavioral political economy inferences, given the extensive (and arguably unfortunate) politicization of AI in the past year.  

Special attention in the September presentation will be directed at how and why: 

• the more day-to-day and relatively mundane AI double-edged swords and less positive dimensions in the earlier presentation and working paper and the very recent past such as AI hallucinations, deceptions, disinformation and bad advice, 
• are now becoming significantly more consequential, 
• and are being augmented and often pushed aside by discourse and contestation on what-can-be called existential and other more extreme double-edged swords, 
• such as how and why artificial intelligence will either destroy humanity or save the world (and/or at least the global economy). 

Furthermore, both AI goods and bads are becoming more consequential, and difficult to understand and explain, as large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI algorithms, applications, systems and models become larger and more complex and sophisticated.        

As before, the presentation will attempt to employ a more “open dialogue and shared learning” format whereby participants, after 3 or 4 slides, will be able to ask questions, make comments, add their perspectives, discuss and debate, and correct and educate the presenter.  The presenter as well will only make personal comments on each slide, while allowing enough time for participants to read the slide if or when they want to.  This approach requires significantly fewer slides than the December 2024 presentation.   

Short Bio of Derek Ireland

Dr. Derek Ireland has been a senior economist and manager in the Canadian public and private sectors for over five decades. He has a BA in Economics and Asian Studies from the University of British Columbia in 1968, and an MA in Economics from Carleton University, which he received in the mid-1970s. He returned to university in 2003 as a student in the PhD program in Public Policy at Carleton University in Ottawa Canada, and received his PhD in February 2009. His PhD research and dissertation was on the evolution of competition policy and law in India, and its interactions with the country’s business community, especially its traditional business groups. In recent years, Dr. Ireland has been operating his own policy consulting firm and has been a Lecturer and Fellow at the Arthur Kroeger College of Carleton University in Ottawa Canada. 

His major area of specialization over the past three decades has been behavioural law and economics including: competition policy and law; consumer policy and consumer protection law; financial and other regulatory reform; regulatory impact analysis with particular attention to competition, consumer, and vulnerable actor impacts; trade policy, intellectual property and innovation policy; urban, regional, rural and infrastructure development; and public administration.  This research has often applied a behavioral and complexity lens to these policy, regulatory and legal regimes

Special attention has also been given to the positive and negative interactions between these different policy, legal and regulatory regimes; the challenges faced by emerging market, transition, and developing economies when they are introducing new laws or reforming and modernizing existing competition, consumer protection, and other laws, regulations, and policies; and, the role of regional trade agreements and other forms of regional cooperation in promoting regulatory reform and modernization and enhancing the effectiveness of competition and other policies,  laws and regulations

His final positions in government were Senior Economist, and Director of Economics and International Affairs, at the Canadian Competition Bureau from 1990 to 1995; and Director of Consumer Policy Research and Acting Director-General for the Office of Consumer Affairs (OCA) of Industry Canada from 1995 to 1998. His extensive international experience includes more than 30 major consulting assignments in China on urban and regional development, infrastructure financing and regulatory reform for the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, and local governments; as well as research, policy development and consulting work in several other developing countries including Mongolia, Nepal, Malaysia, Yemen, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Indonesia, India, and Botswana.  These assignments included technical assistance in 2011 to the Secretariat of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and its 15 member states on the design and enforcement of their competition and consumer protection laws; 

Over the same period, Dr. Ireland has completed many consulting studies for the Government of Canada on competition and consumer policy and law and the interactions between them, regulatory impact analysis, reform, modernization and cross-border cooperation, and the digital economy and consumer.

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/ZYJDIbQkfng

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Title: Nuclear Combined Heat & Power Possibilities in Canada: A Catalyst for New Energy Systems

Speaker: Michael Wiggin, Energy/Environmental Engineer

Abstract: Nuclear Combined Heat & Power Possibilities in Canada: A Catalyst for New Energy Systems”.

Canada has had an abundance of fuel options, particularly natural gas. Accordingly, few Canadians or policy makers were concerned about energy costs or security of supply. Most other nations had reason to be concerned about price and availability and also were more serious in their concerns on Climate Change.

Now Canada recognizes the need for GHG reductions and has adopted a net zero GHG emissions target. The electrification of building heating has been widely endorsed as a preferred option given current prices and emission factors. However, consultations show that the impact of electrification of building heating on the electricity system has been seriously underestimated.

The Boltzmann Institute has just completed a study for ECCC that indicates that the deployment of thermal networks (or district energy systems) in urban areas (about 70% of buildings in Ontario) could more realistically achieve substantial decarbonization in a way that is more sustainable, resilient and affordable.

Of the decarbonized energy sources (waste heat and renewable energy) the deployment of new or refurbished nuclear CHP (combined heat and power) has enormous potential. Pickering Nuclear Generating Station could redirect heat to heat most of Toronto. If such opportunities were pursued, the necessary thermal networks and thermal energy storage could harvest other sources of rejected heat or renewable energy; using intermittent or seasonal sources to meet winter heating needs.

This presentation will provide an overview of possibilities and the catalytic role of nuclear CHP in advancing systems that are now commonplace in most industrialized cold climate countries.

Background for Presentation at St. Andrew’s Men’s Fellowship:

Michael Wiggin is a retired energy/environmental engineer.  After working in the district heating field for about 36 years, he took a break to restore an 1834 stone house in Prescott, Ontario.  After that 2-year break, he returned to Ottawa, and, with other retired colleagues, established the Boltzmann Institute (bi-ib.ca) to promote affordable options to decarbonize the building heating sector.

During his career, he was, since 1984, the Director of NRCan’s district heating and cooling R&D and project development team, a member of the IEA district heating and cooling R&D executive committee of which he is a senior advisor and past chair for about 3 years, and is still a judge for the EuroHeat and Power sustainable district heating and cooling awards program.

From 2000 to 2001, he took a break and helped the Federation of Canadian Municipalities establish the Green Funds program and then a member of the Greater Vancouver Regional District team that won a 100 year sustainable community plan competition sponsored by the International Gas Union. After retiring from NRCan, in about 2007, Michael worked with Public Services and Procurement Canada to develop a conceptual design and transitional plan to convert the aging steam district heating system in Ottawa to hot water so that it can use waste heat or biomass from the region as part of its commitment to net zero energy design.

Currently, with colleagues from the district heating, electricity and nuclear energy sectors of the Boltzmann Institute, Michael is working to advance affordable options to electrification that promise to be more adaptable, resilient and sustainable.  It is this current work that Michael wants to present for discussion at St. Andrews.

Presentation: Thermal Networks: the missing piece in decarbonization

Society benefits largely from networks to provide essential services: water and sewer networks, electricity networks and natural gas networks for space heating.  These are now taken for granted, and as a result of their affordability, Canadian’s have not been pushed to achieve higher energy efficiency or renewable energy use as is now standard in many countries that are less endowed with energy resources.

Now climate change.  Suddenly we respect the impact and causes and are committed to a net-zero energy society by 2050.  We are of the opinion that, with electrification of space heating and the use of air source heat pumps, we are squandering the powerful and flexible electricity resource, partly because electricity experts are unaware of the peaky nature of heating loads and the extreme cost of serving heating needs with electricity.  Michael will outline the thermal network option, the potential to use waste or renewable resources around or within our communities that are not accessible by buildings.  Boltzmann is currently discussing using heat from future nuclear capacity at Pickering to heat all of the GTA (Greater Toronto Area).

Other interests:  While energy and environment are his “day job”, Michael sends much of his time studying democracy and revolutions and works on old cars in his spare time. 

Youtube: https://youtu.be/d-ahe0inyvQ

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Prospects for EVs in the current context

Abstract:  EVs are facing a wave of disinformation and pushback from various sources.  This talk will explore factors that are driving or slowing EV adoption in the current technological, economic and political context.  

Bio: Raymond Leury has always been interested in science & environmental issues. Twelve years ago, he bought his first EV, which eventually led him to become a member of the Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa (EVCO) of which he is now president.  His interest in environmental issues was rekindled when he attended Al Gore’s Climate Reality Corps in 2017.  Now retired from a long IT career, Raymond pursues his passion by spending much of his time researching and advocating for EVs and climate change solutions.

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/-qebU_a-GbM

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Thesis Title: The Domestic Threat of Ideologically Themed Violence and its Links to Social Change

This presentation discusses the findings from Valarie’s doctoral thesis that examines ideologically themed violence in Canada and the United States from 1800 to Present and how it has generated social change and what we can do to counter and prevent it. A socio-historical investigation, this study uses those qualitative and quantitative findings, rather than parsimoniously building on prior approaches, to propose an applied approach to develop institutional and social policies that curtail the destructive aspects of individual and group ideologies.

Abstract

In recent years, Canada and the United States have shifted their national security and public safety priorities to address the domestic threat of extreme social violence that has emerged from contrasting social, political, and religious views. Extreme ideological movements can inspire like-minded individuals by promoting an idealized social order through enduring stereotypes and may resort to violence to elevate their social order and status. This study develops new knowledge on ideological violence, including a broader term – ideologically themed violence that is independent of political, ethnic, or national identity aims – and explores definitions and social conditions that may facilitate a development path. Employing Norbert Elias’s civilizing/decimalizing theory and Cas Wouters’s seven social balances, social change in Canada and the United States from the 19^th to the 21^st century is qualitatively analyzed through historical elements and linked to rates of ideologically themed violence.

Bio:

Valarie Findlay has over 20 years’ experience in private and military cybersecurity and intelligence for the Canadian and US government and FVEY partners. She holds a Masters in Terrorism Studies from the University of St. Andrew’s, a Masters in Sociology from Leicester University and is preparing to defend her doctoral thesis in Sociology with Royal Roads University. She has been a member of IALEA (Int’l Association of Law Enforcement Analysts), AFCEA (Washington DC), the American Society for Evidenced-Based Policing, Canadian Military Intelligence Association (CMIA), and the Canadian Association for Professional Intelligence Analysts (CAPIA) and is a past research fellow for the National Police Foundation (US), CATA Alliance and the Canadian Association of Chief of Police eCrimes Committee. In the course of her professional and academic work, she has published a number of evidenced-based research studies for industry and has presented as a key speaker at conferences. 

Hello,

A celebration of life will be held on zoom on Jan. 9 at 1 pm, feel free to bring your stories, hats, and bowties!

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Youtube: https://youtu.be/ugbH4m6GIWY

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Musings and “Favorite Ideas and Other Things” On Behavioral and Complexity
Economics And Legal and Regulatory Regimes In Digital Space and the Post-COVID World
Presentation by Derek Ireland

The presentation will explore, discuss, and share views and perspectives on four major, interrelated, and overlapping themes and challenges for the current and future digital economy:
1) The complexity of the post-COVID recovery period for national, multi-country regional and the global economy.

2) With artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) and large language models (LLMs) in digital space adding yet another layer of complexity to the global economy.

3) The illegal, antisocial, corrupt, and non-compliant decision errors of digital firms and other more complex regulated entities in digital markets

4) And the more frequent, costly and consequential decision errors of government authorities and regulators and non-state regulators.

The presentation will employ a more “open dialogue and shared learning” format whereby participants will be able to ask questions, make comments, add their perspectives, discussion, and correct the presenter after 3-4 slides. The presenter as well will only make personal comments on each slide, and therefore will allow enough time for participants to read the slide if they wish.

Brief Bio

Dr. Derek Ireland has been a senior economist and manager in the Canadian public and private sectors for well over five decades.  He has a BA in Economics and Asian Studies from the University of British Columbia in 1968, an MA in Economics from Carleton University, which he received in the mid-1970s; and he returned to university in the Fall of 2003 as a student in the PhD program in Public Policy at Carleton University in Ottawa Canada, and received his PhD in February 2009.  His area of specialization over the last two and a half decades has been the interactions between law and economics with emphasis on competition policy and law; regulatory reform and impact analysis; consumer policy and consumer protection law; trade policy; intellectual property and innovation policy; urban, regional, rural and infrastructure development; and public administration.

His international experience includes more than 30 major consulting assignments in China, as well as research and policy development work in several other developing countries such as Nepal, Malaysia, Yemen, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, the Mongolia Republic, and in Botswana working with the Secretariat of the Southern Africa Development Community on competition and consumer protection policies and laws in the SADC Member States.  He has been a member of FSN for well over a decade and has made previous presentations on: marketing foresight to the boundedly rational; uncertainty, novelty, innovation, Canada’s innovation challenge and the consumer; and foresight, behavioral economics, disruptive technologies, the crisis of democratic capitalism, and other problems with wicked characteristics including the wicked challenge of developing the Nepal economy.

Jack passed away on November 12th after a long illness. His obituary appeared in The Ottawa Citizen on Saturday, November 23rd and is noted below.  Jack was born March 1, 1950.

“It is with deep sadness that we announce the passing of John Edward (Jack) Smith. Beloved husband of Joyce Van Dieen (Kealey), Jack is predeceased by his father, George Edward Smith; mother, Mavis Grace Smith (Nickerson); and brother-in-law, Joe Falcone.

He is survived by his daughter, Hannah Gorham-Smith, and her mother Harriet Gorham; stepsons, Jason (Brittany Martin) and Kurtis Van Dieen; siblings, Bob (Donna) Smith and Margaret (Tim) Davey; in-laws, Lena Kealey, Judy (Joe) Falcone, and Bryan and Shaun Kealey; his cousin, Greg (Liz) Smith; and his many nieces and nephews. He is also fondly remembered by his close friend Larry (Julia) Rossignol.
A loving husband, father, and friend to many, Jack was born in Halifax. He graduated from Queens University in 1972 and later from Cornell University in 1984. He held a very strong, lifelong attachment to Ithaca NY and to his maritime roots.

Over a remarkable career spanning 50 years, Jack made substantial contributions in energy conservation, housing, and science policy across the federal government, including the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, National Research Council, and Office of the National Science Advisor. Considered the father of technology foresight in Canada, he launched the Federal Foresight Network, was an international advisor with the APEC Center for Technology Foresight in Thailand, and co-founder of the Foresight Synergy Network at the University of Ottawa Telfer School of Management with Jonathon Calof.

Moreover, Jack leaves a local legacy in affordable housing in Ottawa, where he was a driving force behind the creation of the Sandy Hill Housing Co-op, Housing Help, and the redevelopment of Strathcona Heights, a 27-acre community housing neighbourhood in southern Sandy Hill.

Jack was a man of many passions. He threw his heart into travel, gourmet cooking, wine tasting, dancing, canoe camping, ice hockey, swimming, skiing, and politics. He was also known for his extensive and eclectic collections of grotesque lamps, corkscrews, and water pistols, as well as numerous grotto parties where he entertained his many friends. With a nose for fine wines, he was a loyal member of the Group of Seven wine tasting club for 25 years.

Jack possessed a steely will, cloaked in a kind and gentle spirit. With remarkable determination, he persevered through all the ‘bumps and scrapes’ his condition dealt him for over a decade.

His family wishes to thank his fabulous physiotherapist, Angela Benoit; the team at the University of Ottawa Heart Institute; and his many PSWs this past year.

In keeping with his spirit of fun, a celebration of life will be held at the Mill Street Brew Pub, December 14, 2024, from 11:00 am. to 3:00 pm. Feel free to bring your stories, hats, and bowties!

In lieu of flowers, donations in Jack’s memory may be made to the Rossy Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) Centre or the University of Ottawa Heart Institute.”

Published online November 23, 2024

Source: https://ottawacitizen.remembering.ca/obituary/john-smith-1092304905

Jack co-found FSN with Professor Jonathan Calof of the Telfer School of Management at uOttawa and serves as our FSN host at the university.  Here are a few words from Jonathan, “Jack was the father of foresight in the Canadian Government. His tireless energy in pushing forward a foresight agenda and creating many networks to help develop new foresight practitioners is legendary. But even more impressive was his incredible devotion to his friends, colleagues and his family.  Jack helped many.  We will miss Jack. Our lives are emptier without him.”

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/kdioL2InOA8

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AI: Integrity, Ethics, Geopolitics & Social Responsibility 

By

Peter K. MacKinnon

Abstract
Today, most transformations in the world are being driven by applications of information and communications technologies. Moreover, intangible things are becoming a new norm in the form of big data, advanced software and services being enabled by AI and proliferated by means of the internet with unprecedented speed and depth of penetration across the globe. Such intangibles and their enabling technologies raise the bar with their power and range of uses leading to calls for responsible development and use of AI-enabled systems, particularly in critical infrastructure and mission critical systems. Why? Because AI is a powerful dual use technology.

The emergence of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) is supercharging the ability of scientists and engineers to develop ever more powerful technologies. This is leading to further advancement of AI itself and reshaping the world in the process, especially AI’s implications to geopolitics and social responsibility, such as its role in helping to preserve democracy against a rising tide of autocratic states, and non-state actors such as criminals and terrorists and even lone wolves. GAI is the first general purpose technology in the world that can manipulate the human mind for good or bad.

My intent in this talk is to raise awareness and to appreciate and understand the themes in the title of this webinar, especially as they relate to creating and operating AI technologies for the benefit of humanity. Therefore, in this talk I will look at artificial intelligence through the lenses of integrity and ethics, geopolitics, and social responsibility.

Biography
Today, Peter is a management consultant and academic. He has a professional background built on a wide range of experiences derived from holding positions as a scientist, business manager, entrepreneur, bureaucrat, executive, diplomat, international management advisor and academic. His experiences span the world. He has worked with clients on every continent and a number of island nations.

His consultancy practice is global in scope and focuses on strategic management issues associated with government policies and programs, business formation, corporate development and change management, often with an underlying current related to advanced information and communications technologies. One of his academic areas of interest is the interface between engineering and business; in particular the roles played by disruptive technologies and disruptive business models within organisations and political economy more generally. He also is involved in workforce and supply chain development for emerging strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum and post quantum computing, and SMRs – small modular reactors.

Peter writes regularly on various themes in Artificial Intelligence for policy oriented publications. He is the founding Managing Partner of Synergy Technology Management, also based in Ottawa with a world wide practice.

He is a member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) – USA Artificial Intelligence Systems Policy Committee; Chair of the Foresight Synergy Network, a professional futures group, sponsored by the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa; serves as a Senior Research
Associate in the Faculty of Engineering at uOttawa, and blogs on Artificial Intelligence for the Institute for Science Society and Policy at uOttawa. He is also a Senior Associate of Global Advantage Consulting Group based in Ottawa, Canada.